Tuesday, May 17, 2011

NFC Draft Analysis

After much deliberation and more analysis than Matt Millen would understand, here is the breakdown for the NFC teams from the draft.

Panthers - This draft will always be judged by how Cam Newton(QB) plays. Regardless though, this had to be the pick. Newton scored 100 more points than the entire Panther team did last year. If he can continue to be an accurate passer and if he is used correctly, he will be a great asset for the team. The Panthers also picked up a couple DTs in the third round which will greatly help their upfront play. The worst part of this draft was last years trade for Armanti Edwards(WR) that left them without a second round pick. When you also factor in that Steve Smith will probably be traded once the transaction freeze is lifted, it looks as if this team will have another high draft pick next year.

Bucs - By selecting Adrian Clayborn(DE) in the first and De'Quan Bowers(DE) in the second, the Bucs filled their need for a pass rusher to combine with their two DT draft picks from last year. However, each came with big question marks (Clayborn has Erb Palsy and Bowers may need reconstructive knee surgery). If these picks work for them and if both McCoy and Price come back from injury, Tampa will have the feared defense they've been lacking since Derrick Brooks left.  Foster(OLB), Stocker(TE), and Black(SS) all have potential to start down the line.

Falcons - The Falcons made the big splash of the draft by giving up a kings ransom (2010 1st, 2nd, 4th & 2011 - 1st, 4th) for a WR. How many teams can truly say they were a #2 rookie WR away from winning the Superbowl? I think they gave too much for a player that will only make them marginally better. They also failed to pick up a pass rusher (although they have been linked to Vikings DE Ray Edwards, but if they have to trade for him, what else do they have to give up?) If Julio Jones isn't the next coming of Lynn Swann, then this draft (and next years) is a bust. 

Saints - On paper, it looks as if Mardi Gras town got a couple of great players filling big needs. But in reality, neither Mark Ingram(RB) nor Cameron Jordan(DE) are great fits for this club and it leaves them depleted for the future. The Saints needed a pass rusher, but Jordan is more of a run stuffing DE. Ingram is a great back, but was he worth the 1st and 2nd round selection they gave up to draft him? My first instinct says no, but only time will tell. Martez Wilson(OLB) has potential to be an above average starter for this defense, but other than that the Saints didn't do a whole lot for themselves.

Skins -Washington is definitely a better team, but that really isn't that hard. The biggest surprise was their willingness to disregard the quarterback position. Unlike the Seahawks, I don't think they did enough to build their foundation. I'm one of the few that isn't sure that first round pick Kerrigan can make the successful transition to OLB. Helu and Hankerson have potential to be productive players, but not with John Beck or Rex Grossman at quarterback. Last year, Shanny did a great job of getting two starting offensive tackles. This year they did nothing to beef up their interior line, which will make it tough for them to be productive on offense.

Cowboys - Similar to Washington, Jerry Jones grabbed a bunch of really good players, but I'm not sure any of them filled a need. Doug Free is a better LT than most teams have, yet they drafted Tyson Smith(OT). They have a good 1-2 punch with Felix Jones and Tashard Choice, but drafted Demarco Murray(RB) in the third. Bruce Carter(ILB) could turn out to be one of the steals of the draft, but did they need him when they already had Brooking, last year 2nd rd pick Sean Penn, Bradie James, and Leon Williams to man 2 spots? For a team that doesn't have too many holes when healthy, I would've liked to see them grab a couple players who could have had a huge immediate impact. Furthermore, they did nothing to address their biggest hole at safety.

Eagles - First round pick Danny Watkins(G) was a surprise in the first round, but has potential to be one of the great picks of the first round (think Logan Mankins). Adding Jaiquawn Jarrett (SS) in the second round gives them a formidable young safety combo that could cause problems for the rest of the division. They also added Casey Matthews (MLB) [Clay Matthews younger brother]. While not as explosive as his older brother, it will be interesting to see if Casey can make an impact beyond special teams for a club that hasn't had a steady linebacker presence since Jeremiah Trotter.

G-Men - Getting Prince Amukamara (CB) at 19 was a steal. He adds quality to an already up and coming secondary. Marvin Austin (DT) has either boom or bust potential as some teams had a first round grade on him but he sat out all last year due to the Tarheel NCAA scandal. James Brewer was my favorite later round lineman and could start at left tackle in a couple of years.

Bears - I'm not a fan of Gabe Carimi (OT) as a future left tackle and think the Bears just drafted the second coming of Chris Williams. I think Carimi's upside is right tackle, but probably at guard down the road. I thought second round pick Stephen Paea (DT) would've been perfect for a 3-4 team, but the Bears have done well with larger tackles in their Tampa 2 system. Nathan Enderle (QB) landed in the perfect spot for him. He can sit and learn Martz's system and develop for a couple of years. He has Marc Bulger upside.

Vikings - Since the Beijing National Stadium wasn't draft eligible, they took their next biggest need. Although I don't believe this is a quarterback driven league (more on that to come), I don't fault the vikes for taking their biggest need by far on either side of the ball. The vikings have started Dante Culpepper, Todd Bouman, Spergon Wynn, Gus Frerottte, Brad Johnson, Tavarais Jackson, Brooks Bollinger, Kelly Holcomb, Brett Favre and Joe Webb at quarterback since the turn of the century. With the exception of one good year out of Culpepper and Favre, not exactly a high quality list. Ponder has been compared to Chad Pennington, which would be ideal. He gives them someone they can hopefully plug in for 8 years and not have to worry about the position. The rest of the draft proved them to get great value in players like Kyle Rudolph (think Jason Witten), Ballard gives them versatility up front, Burton has potential to be a good man cover corner, Love will be a swing tackle at worst, and the rest have backup potential with excellent special teams play. Very solid, but not great draft.

Lions - Somehow, the paperbaggers ended up getting the best DT (and arguably best player) in the draft again. Although they didn't fill any of their needs (Prince Amukamara would've also been a great pick), Fairley (DT) was just too good to pass up. Same thing can be said argued Mike Leshoure (RB) and Titus Young (WR). If these players play up to their potentials, it could work out very well for them; otherwise, teams will keep attacking their holes and all they will have is depth at luxury positions.

Packers - When you're the Super Bowl champs, how many holes can you have? As much as I think they should've gotten another dominant pass rusher to compliment the tough guy, I can't fault them for getting a LT of the future (especially since I think Bulaga will bust). The rest of the draft was about getting weapons for Rogers, which I actually think was needed. Driver is just about done, James Jones will probably be allowed to walk, and outside of the playoffs last year, Nelson hasn't been starter quality. DJ Williams (TE) and Ricky Elmore (DE) are two interesting names to keep an eye on.

Cards - Arizona helped their defense immediately by getting one of the most freakish athletes to come out in the last five years. Patrick Peterson (CB) is large enough to play in the box strong safety but can run with nearly any receiver and is a dynamic punt returner. Ryan Williams (RB) was one of the biggest head scratchers in the draft considering the depth they already had there and the success of later round running backs. Adding Anthony Sherman (RB) in the fifth says that Wiz must not be happy at all with his running game. Personally, I love the two late round linebackers they picked. Sam Acho (OLB) and Quan Sturdivant (OLB) have a chance to pair with Daryl Washington to make a very dynamic group in a couple of years. 

Seahawks -Pete Carroll may have reached for his entire draft, but I like the way he is building this team. Given his success last year and success at USC, it's hard to argue too much. Carpenter (RT) and Moffit (RG) will be an anchor to that line along with Okung and Spencer. This will help the running game and give protection to whoever is playing quarterback (my bet is Whitehurst gets the nod for a year or two). Wright (OLB) and Legree (FS) are athletic enough to eventually start and were worth the flyers.

Rams - Like the Packers, the Rams spent most of the draft trying to upgrade weapons for Sam Bradford. Greg Salas (WR), Austin Petits (WR), and Lance Kendricks (TE) all were worth taking in hopes they develop into legitimate receiving threats, but my instincts say they are more the same that they already have on the roster. Bradford will still need help outside. Getting Robert Quinn (DE) was great value and has potential to bookend with Chris Long to form a feared pass rush in a division that already has deficiencies along the offensive line and at quarterback.

Niners - The niners were this years big winners in my book. Kaepernick (QB) was my favorite quarterback in the entire draft and landed in the perfect spot. He has the physical and mental tools to succeed, especially if he is able to come along slowly and learn from Coach Harbaugh. Aldon Smith (OLB) gives them another great play maker at linebacker and could give them a feared pass rusher off the edge. Culliver (CB) has good size and speed and could start as a nickel defender in his first year. Kilgore (OL), Hunter (RB), Miller (DL) will all prove to be quality backups.

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